space weather prediction center
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From the Space Weather Prediction Center
Updated 2008 Oct 07 2201 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2008
Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained spotless.
Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (08 - 10 October).
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Les températures continuent d'être douces 18,3°C le matin à 8 H à Toulon et Hyères, à Cap Cépet 17.5°C, Ile du Levant 17.1°C, Cap Sagro 17.0°C,
Marignane 16.8°C, Istres 16.8°C, Cap Corse 16.8°C, La Parata 16.7°C, Porto-Vecchio 16.3°C, Alistro 16.3°C, Cap Pertusato 16.2°C, Pointe de Socoa 16.1°C, Salon-de-Provence 16.0°C, Cap Bear
16.0°C, Nice 15.9°C, Perpignan 15.8°C, Ile Rousse 15.8°C, Nîmes - Garons 15.8°C, Figari 15.8°C, pour les maxima.
(4,2 à Vannes, 5,5 à St Nazaire, 6,1°C à Chamonix Mt Blanc, à Valognes 6.5°C, Rennes 6.6°C, Mont-Aigoual 6.7°C, Nantes 7°C, Saint-Brieuc 7.6°C,
Laval 7.8°C, Alençon 8.1°C, Dinard 8.2°C, Bourg-Saint- Maurice 8.2°C, Embrun 8.6°C, Landivisiau 8.6°C, Mende - Brenoux 8.6°C, Angers 8.6°C, La Roche s/yon 8.7°C, Brest 8.7°C, Rouen 9.2°C
pour les minima à 8H)
Précipitations 24 H le 7 octobre
Station
Précipitations 24h
Mont-Aigoual 55.0 mm
Nîmes - Garons 28.6 mm
Montélimar 27 mm
Pointe de Socoa 21 mm
Biarritz 20.4 mm
Dax 20.4 mm
Cap Ferret 20 mm
Orange 19.2 mm
Mende - Brenoux 18.8 mm
Bergerac 18.6 mm
Salon-de-Provence 18.6 mm
Le Puy 18.2 mm
Toulouse-Blagnac 17.2 mm
La Rochelle 15.8 mm
Istres 15.0 mm
Roissy 14.2 mm
Pointe de Chassiron 14 mm
Limoges 14 mm
Agen 14.0 mm
Brive 13.4 mm
Clermont-Ferrand 13.2 mm
Niort 13.2 mm
Mont-de-Marsan 12.4 mm
Le Bourget 12.2 mm
Bordeaux 12 mm
Pau 11.4 mm
Toulouse-Francazal 11.4 mm
Carpentras 11.4 mm
Paris - Montsouris 11.0 mm
Melun 10.2 mm
Albi 10.2 mm
Biscarosse 10.2 mm
Rodez 9.2 mm
Orly 9.2 mm
Toussus-le-Noble 9.0 mm
Villacoublay 9.0 mm
Saint-Girons 9 mm
Trappes 9.0 mm
Saint-Etienne 8.6 mm
Carcassonne 8.6 mm
Saint-Quentin 8.4 mm
Gourdon 8.2 mm
Cognac 8.2 mm
Aurillac 7.8 mm
Angers 7.0 mm
Marignane 6.8 mm
Reims 6.6 mm
Auxerre 6.6 mm
Nevers 6.0 mm
Vichy 6.0 mm
Guéret 5.8 mm
Tours 5.6 mm
Tarbes 5.6 mm
Châteauroux 5.6 mm
Creil 5.6 mm
Charleville- Mézières 5.6 mm
Chartres 5.6 mm
Avord 5.4 mm
La Roche s/yon 5.4 mm
Montpellier 5.4 mm
Auch 5.4 mm
Lille 5 mm
Sète 5 mm
Le Mans 4.8 mm
Millau 4.8 mm
Deauville 4.4 mm
Nantes 4.2 mm
Poitiers 4.2 mm
Rouen 4 mm
Boulogne 4.0 mm
Orléans 4.0 mm
Montauban 3.8 mm
Châteaudun 3.6 mm
Lyon - Bron 3.6 mm
Blois 3.6 mm
Bourges 3.4 mm
Beauvais 3.4 mm
Saint-Dizier 3.2 mm
Troyes 3.2 mm
Cap de la Hève 3 mm
Saint-Nazaire 3.0 mm
Cambrai 3.0 mm
Dunkerque 3.0 mm
Dijon 3 mm
Dieppe 2.8 mm
Le Touquet 2.8 mm
Brest 2.8 mm
Lorient 2.6 mm
Landivisiau 2.4 mm
Valognes 2.4 mm
Alençon 2.4 mm
Caen 2.2 mm
Ile de Batz 2.2 mm
Lanveoc 2.2 mm
Ile de Groix 2 mm
Brignogan 2 mm
Chemoulin 2 mm
Laval 2.0 mm
Paluel 2.0 mm
Saint-Sauveur 2 mm
Romorantin 2.0 mm
Cap de la Hague 2 mm
Perpignan 1.8 mm
Saint-Brieuc 1.8 mm
Abbeville 1.6 mm
Vannes 1.6 mm
Quimper 1.6 mm
Lons-le-Saunier 1.6 mm
Lyon - Satolas 1.6 mm
Rennes 1.4 mm
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Sur la période, séismes important http://albert-nodon.e-monsite.com/forum-lire-131108.html et ouragan http://albert-nodon.e-monsite.com/forum-lire-131444.html
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space weather prediction center
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From the Space Weather Prediction Center
Le groupe de taches solaires 1004 du 10 octobre appartenant peut-être au cycle 24 et le 1005 au cycle 24
:Product: 1010RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Oct 10 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A new region was numbered
today as Region 1004 (S08W17).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for 11 October. Unsettled to active
conditions are expected for 12-13 October as a recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Oct 069
Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 069/069/070
90 Day Mean 10 Oct 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 005/005-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/30/15
Minor storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/40/20
Minor storm 01/20/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
http://www.flickr.com/photos/djmccrady/2932329099/in/pool-unltd
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Updated 2008 Oct 11 2201 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2008
Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A new-cycle sunspot was numbered today as Region 1005 (N26E42).
Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to severe storm conditions, Activity was due to a favorably positioned coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speeds increased from around 330 to 530 km/s during the period. The Bz was anywhere from -13 nT to -14 nT while the Bt reached fluctuations of +14 nT to +15 nT for the period between 11/0600Z - 11/1800Z.
Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active conditions with isolated minor storm levels at high latitudes for 12 October. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 13 October. Predominately quiet levels are expected to return for 14 October as the coronal hole effects subside.
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/javagif/gifs/20081011_1253_mdi_mag.gif
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/solar_magneto_101108animation1.giflinks to watch the location of this sunspot
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cette activité solaire a été l'occasion d'admirer les spectaculaires aurores teintées de vert se produisant lors d'importants indices magnétiques aux pôles terrestres
http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images2008/11oct08/Sauli-Koski1_strip.jpg
10.11.2001 In Finland the photographer Sauli Koski of Kittila, Finland. He took this picture and others using a Nikon D3 digital camera, opening the shutter for 8 seconds at 1000 asa.
http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images2008/11oct08/Sauli-Koski3_strip.jpg
11.10.208 Finally some good auroras and no clouds!" he says. Bright moonlight added beauty to the scene by illuminating the landscape. Koski made a series of exposures using a Nikon D3 digital camera, opening the shutter for 6 seconds at 800 ASA.
see on spaceweather.com the 10 and 11 otober 2008 http://www.spaceweather.com
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Avec spaceweather
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Le cycle 24 s'emballe. Voici le GTS 1006 à l'hémisphère sud tandis que d'autres foyers à la même latitude que le GTS 1004 ne sont pas encore déclarés comme groupe de taches solaires et ne portent pas de numéro car ils n'ont pas de partie sombre selon le commentaire de la NASA http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=16&month=10&year=2008
Une seule certitude l'activité du soleil repart à son chemin de croisière. Les photos prises par le satelitte Stereo-B (situé à l'arrière de l'orbite de la Terre il peut voir la bande du Soleil invisible depuis la Terre) :
Au passage nous profitons de la photo du spectacle du coucher de Soleil dans le ciel à Hawï. Samedi dernier, 11 Octobre, le photographe Stephen O'Meara s'est joint à une foule de spectateurs sur le flanc sud-est du Mauna Loa "pour voir la puissance d'un volcan».
Dans le coin à droite Vénus. "Nommé par les Romains la déesse de l'amour, beauté et la fécondité, Vénus brille sur les deux amoureux dans un "chaleureux" enlassement, alors qu'ils regardent la lave en fusion du volcan Kilauea se déverser dans le Pacifique tiède et en expansion sur les côtes sud Hawaiiennes de Big ISLANDA littoral sud. "
À la fin du mois, ce coucher de soleil sera encore mieux. "Pour la soirée d'Halloween, Vénus sera rejointe par un mince croissant de lune", note O'Meara. "Toutes les deux partageront la scène à l'ouest avec de rouge feu d'Antares â €" la 1er magnitude au coeur de Scorpius, le Scorpion. Quel régal! " (traduction du commentaire sous l'image du site spaceweather)
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Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2008 Oct 16 2201 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low with no flares observed.
Region 1005 (N26W29) was quiet and stable during the period. Region
1006 (S27W63) was numbered today and is an alpha magnetic
configuration. This region exhibits New Cycle 24 magnetic polarity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet all three days of the forecast period
(17 - 19 October).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 072
Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 072/072/071
90 Day Mean 16 Oct 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
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avec le centre d'environnement spatial, report d'activité solaire et géophy
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Le groupe de taches solaires apparus le 30 octobre N35E15 appartient au cycle 24
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2008 Oct 31 2201 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
New-cycle polarity Region 1007 (N34E04) was simply structured and
stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE
solar wind measurements indicated a subsiding recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities gradually decreased from
729 to 567 km/sec during the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the period (01 - 03
November).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Oct 068
Predicted 01 Nov-03 Nov 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 31 Oct 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct 011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
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