Le cycle solaire 24 : une légère activité fin août début septembre 2009

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# 01/09/2009 à 14:59 Le cycle solaire 24 - (site web)
Après la fugace activité géomagnétique de ce dimanche 30 août 2009 un nouveau foyer se manifeste sans donner lieu à une numérotation pour l'instant.
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2009 Aug 31 2201 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 1025 (N17E33)
was assigned today. No flares were observed.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The unsettled
conditions were due to a coronal hole high speed stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on days 1 and 2 (1 - 2 September). Day 3 (3
September) is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels due
to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Aug 068
Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 31 Aug 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 012/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 005/005-005/005-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01


# 02/09/2009 à 00:12 l'héphèmère région 11025 du 30 août 2009 (site web)
Image
http://www.solarmonitor.org/region.php?region=11025

Image
Sesley UK

alors que ce groupe de taches solaires apparu après 51 jours d'activité basse vient de disparaître un autre semble émerger à une latitude équivalente plus proche de l'Equateur.

L'indice Kp a atteint la valeur de 6 et 4 dimanche vers 18 et 19 H. Cette activité géomagnétique a induit les aurores photographiées depuis Tromso en Norvège
Image

ICI celle du 27 août vue depuis le village Inuit de Salluit dans le Nunavik, Canada,
Image

Les astronomes amateurs avaient déjà repéré des protubérances dès le 29 août. Par exemple :
Mark Townley
Image taken:
Aug. 29, 2009
Location:
Brierley Hill, WEst Midlands.
Details:
As I turned my Coronado SM40 towards the sun this morning I was gretted by a huge looping prominence, the largest for a while and quite spectacular! Taken with SM40 @ f16 DMK31 camera.
Image
http://spaceweather.com/submissions/large_image_popup.php?image_name=Stephen-Ames-082909all_1251553316.jpg
et les autres http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=29&month=08&year=2009
ou la vidéo http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=30&month=08&year=2009

Un trou coronal du 30 août
Image a succèdé la série de trous coronaux dont les doubles du 27 dans les deux hémisphères
Image
fin de la série apparue le 25 Image
le seul dans l'HN le 28
Image
# 02/09/2009 à 21:41 disparition progressive du groupe de taches solaires 1025 et trou coronal
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2009 Sep 01 2201 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1025 (N17E18) a
small, simple Bxo continues to grow. No flares were observed.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (2 September) and quiet to unsettled
on days 2 and 3 (3 -4 September). The activity is due to a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Sep 069
Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 01 Sep 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 005/007-008/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
# 09/09/2009 à 01:33 un trou coronal continue d'alimenter l'activité géomagnétique
rapport du 7 septembre
oint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A weak B-level event was
seen in GOES x-rays at approximately 1701Z, which was associated
with a brightening of plage region 1025(N17W73). The solar disk was
otherwise void of activity and continues to be spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (9-11 September).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for day one (9 September), due to
a recurrent coronal high speed stream. On day two and day three
(10-11 September), the geomagnetic field is expected to return to
quiet levels.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Sep 069
Predicted 09 Sep-11 Sep 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 08 Sep 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep 003/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep 007/010-005/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

# 19/09/2009 à 16:41 activité du soleil toujours aussi peu remarquée (site web)
Days since last "official" sunspot: 16

From the Space Weather Prediction Center

Updated 2009 Sep 17 2201 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2009

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The visible disk remains spotless.

Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet with two periods of unsettled conditions from 0000Z-0600Z.

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet with isolated periods of unsettled conditions for day one (18 September). This activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. On days two and three (19-20 September), the geomagnetic field is expected to return to quiet levels.


A region that could be a Cycle 24 sunspot is still lurking on the eastern limb. It has been visible for several days now in the STEREO Behind images and should begin to show itself by early next week.

A Cycle 24 plage continues to persist in the southern hemisphere of the sun, however there is no visible sunspots as of yet. Magnetogram is below.

Image
http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2009/09/18/behind/euvi/195/256/20090918_184530_n7euB_195.jpg
# 21/09/2009 à 12:49 Récapitulatif rapport observations 253 à 262
Extrait récapitulatif de la période du 11 au 19 septembre 2009 (rapports n° 254 à 262 Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force).


SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred and the solar disk continues to be void of sunspots. There are indications,however, of a possible new active region behind the east limb based on Stereo-B EUVI and GOES-14 SXI imagery.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Sep 071
90 Day Mean 19 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep 002/003
--------------------------

SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The visible disk remains spotless.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet with an isolated period of unsettled conditions from 0000Z-03000Z.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet with an isolated period of unsettled conditions from 0000Z-03000Z.
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Sep 069
90 Day Mean 18 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep 006/008
--------------------------------------

SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The visible disk remains spotless.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet with two periods of unsettled conditions from 0000Z-0600Z
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet with isolated periods of unsettled conditions for day one (18 September). This activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. On days two and three (19-20 September), the geomagnetic field is expected to return to quiet levels.
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
V. Observed 17 Sep 069
VI. 90 Day Mean 17 Sep 068
VII. V. Geomagnetic A Indices
VIII. Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep 005/006
------------------------

SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The visible disk remains spotless.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet with an isolated unsettled period at mid latitudes from 0300Z-0600Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet with isolated unsettled levels for day one and day two (17-18 September). This activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. On day three (19 September), the geomagnetic field is expected to return to quiet levels.
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
V. Observed 16 Sep 069
VI. 90 Day Mean 16 Sep 068
VII. V. Geomagnetic A Indices
VIII. Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep 004/005
-------------

SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The visible disk was spotless.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomantic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods, for the next two days (16-17 September). This increased activity is expected as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective. The geomagnetic field is expected to return to quiet levels on the third
day (18 September).
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
V. Observed 15 Sep 069
VI. 90 Day Mean 15 Sep 068
VII. V. Geomagnetic A Indices
VIII. Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 004/005
------------------------

SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The visible disk was spotless.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. A single unsettled period was observed at all latitudes between 14/0000-0300Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods at high latitudes, for the next three days (15-17 September). The increased activity is expected as a recurrent coronal hole becomes geoeffective.
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
V. Observed 14 Sep 069
VI. 90 Day Mean 14 Sep 068
VII. V. Geomagnetic A Indices
VIII. Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 004/006
-----------------------

SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The visible disk remained spotless.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. A single unsettled period was observed at high latitudes between 13/1500-1800Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet, with isolated unsettled periods on day one (14 September). Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods at high latitudes, are expected on days two and three (15-16 September) due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
V. Observed 13 Sep 069
VI. 90 Day Mean 13 Sep 068
VII. V. Geomagnetic A Indices
VIII. Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep 001/004
-------------

SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The visible disk remained spotless.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet, with isolated unsettled periods for the next three days (13-15 September) as a coronal hole is expected to become geoeffective.
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
V. Observed 12 Sep 069
VI. 90 Day Mean 12 Sep 068
VII. V. Geomagnetic A Indices
VIII. Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep 002/004
---------------

SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The visible disk remained spotless.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (12 September). Quiet levels, with unsettled periods possible at high latitudes, are expected on day two (13 September). Quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for isolated active periods at high latitudes, are expected on day three (14 September) as a coronal hole high-speed stream is expected to become geoeffective.
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
V. Observed 11 Sep 069
VI. 90 Day Mean 11 Sep 068
VII. V. Geomagnetic A Indices
VIII. Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep 002/002
--------------

SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic filed was quiet.
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
V. Observed 10 Sep 069
VI. 90 Day Mean 10 Sep 068
VII. V. Geomagnetic A Indices
VIII. Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep 002/001
# 22/09/2009 à 11:07 Groupe de taches solaires 1026 le 21 septembre 2009
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 264 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. There was one B-class
event during the past 24 hours; a B1 x-ray event at 1256Z from newly
numbered Region 1026 (S29E63). The current proximity of the region
to the limb prevented detailed analysis. The remainder of the disk
was quiet and stable.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. A slow increase in background levels is expected as Region 1026
rotates more fully into view. There is a chance for additional
isolated B-class events from Region 1026.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first day (22 September).
Predominantly quiet levels are expected for the second and third
days (23-24 September).

III. Event Probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Sep 072
Predicted 22 Sep-24 Sep 074/076/077
90 Day Mean 21 Sep 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Sep 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep 007/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
# 22/09/2009 à 11:35 Groupe de taches solaires 1026 le 21 septembre 2009
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 264 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. There was one B-class
event during the past 24 hours; a B1 x-ray event at 1256Z from newly
numbered Region 1026 (S29E63). The current proximity of the region
to the limb prevented detailed analysis. The remainder of the disk
was quiet and stable.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. A slow increase in background levels is expected as Region 1026
rotates more fully into view. There is a chance for additional
isolated B-class events from Region 1026.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first day (22 September).
Predominantly quiet levels are expected for the second and third
days (23-24 September).

III. Event Probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Sep 072
Predicted 22 Sep-24 Sep 074/076/077
90 Day Mean 21 Sep 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Sep 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep 007/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
# 22/09/2009 à 11:44 Images du groupe de taches solaires 1026
Image
Image
Image
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