Les américains nous informent : périhelion du Soleil par rapport à la Terre et calcul de la prévision du flux solaire

Ces diverses informations proviennent du site http://solarcycle24.forumco.com/topic~TOPIC_ID~4~whichpage~26.asp

"Averaged over the globe, sunlight falling on Earth in January [at perihelion] is about 7% more intense than it is in July [at aphelion]," says Roy Spencer of the Global Hydrology and Climate Center in Huntsville, AL.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2001/ast04jan_1.htm

1997
Jan. 2 Perihelion, 147,094,700 km (91,400,238 mi)
July 4 Aphelion, 152,103,870 km (94,512,783 mi)
1998
Jan. 4 Perihelion, 147,099,830 km (91,403,420 mi)
July 4 Aphelion, 152,095,600 km (94,507,640 mi)
1999
Jan. 3 Perihelion, 147,096,800 km (91,404,200 mi)
July 6 Aphelion, 152,098,500 km (94,509,500 mi)
2000
Jan. 3 Perihelion, 147,102,800 km (91,405,443 mi)
July 4 Aphelion, 152,102,300 km (94,511,989 mi)
2001
Jan. 4 Perihelion, 147,097,600 km (91,402,000 mi)
July 4 Aphelion, 152,087,500 km (94,502,600 mi)
2002
Jan. 2 Perihelion, 147,098,130 km (91,402,370 mi)
July 6 Aphelion, 152,094,370 km (94,506,880 mi)
2003
Jan. 4 Perihelion, 147,102,650 km (91,405,350 mi)
July 4 Aphelion, 152,100,360 km (94,510,780 mi)
2004
Jan. 4 Perihelion, 147,098,250 km (91,402,620 mi)
July 5 Aphelion, 152,098,990 km (94,510,000 mi)

Reference Encyclpedia Britannica
2005

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here is an equation that relates solar flux to sunspots:
SF= 73.4 + 0.62 R where SF =Solar Flux and R = Daily Sunspot Count

However, this presents a problem when R = 0 the lowest SF is 73.4. So a better equation to use is:

SF = 63.7 + 0.73R + 0.0009R^2

This quadratic equation may be solved with the quadratic formula. When R = 0, SF = 63.7

From "The New Shortwave Propagation Handbook," by George Jacobs, T.J. Cohen, and Robert B. Rose.
(pg. 2-13) Also, the lowest SF measured in Canada was 62.6 on one day, November 3 1954 which preceded the huge and famous Cycle 19.

 

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Record de flux solaire le plus bas

Top 12 HISTORIC LOWS - based on Adjusted measurements
MO/DY/YR---Observed--ADJUSTED--Remarks ("adjusted" readings: 1 before, current, 1 after)
03/01/1997--53.5--------52.5------Likely a bad measurement (68.1, 52.5, 72.9)
03/02/1998--56.8--------55.8------Likely a bad measurement (89.9, 55.8, 95.1)
01/28/2006--58.0--------56.3------Likely a bad measurement (81.5, 56.3, 78.6)
11/03/1954--62.6--------61.6------Measurement OK? (69.6, 61.6, 66.6)
02/24/1953--63.1--------61.8------Measurement OK? (66.3, 61.8, 68.0)
01/06/1954--65.2--------63.0------Measurement OK? (66.2, 63.0, 66.3)
12/31/1996--65.6--------63.4------Measurement OK? (69.2, 63.4, 69.8)
04/02/1954--63.6--------63.6------Measurement OK? (69.2, 63.6, no data)
11/08/2007--64.8--------63.6------Measurement OK? (68.4, 63.6, 67.8)
10/18/2007--64.6--------64.1------Measurement OK? (67.7, 64.1, 66.6)
12/07/1996--66.1--------64.1------Measurement OK? (65.4, 64.1, 67.1)
12/08/1996--66.2--------64.2------Measurement OK? (66.6, 64.2, 67.2)

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Le flux solaire est relié à l'activité solaire :

plus le cycle solaire est bas, plus le niveau du flux solaire est bas (55-70)

plus le cycle solaire est haut, plus le niveau du flux solaire est haut (à plus de 300)

courbe du flux solaire depuis 1997

 Patricia Régnier

 

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